KUALA LUMPUR — The growth outlook of ASEAN economies is likely to diverge in 2016 and 2017, against the backdrop of subdued global demand, said Moody’s Investors Service.
Moody’s Vice-President and Senior Research Analyst, Rahul Ghosh said the growth prospects of ASEAN’s major export-oriented economies, namely Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, would remain weaker than those of more domestic demand-driven economies as Indonesia and the Philippines.
“Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are susceptible to a prolonged period of subdued global demand via both the export channel and weaker investment demand,” he said in a statement.
Export growth was slumping across the region. However, the overall economic impact would vary based on the relative importance of trade to gross domestic product (GDP).
According to Moody’s, total trade — the sum of exports and imports — accounts for 346 percent, 131 percent, and 130 percent of GDP in Singapore (Aaa stable), Malaysia (A3 stable), and Thailand (Baa1 stable), respectively.
This is much higher than the 41 percent recorded for Indonesia (Baa3 stable) and 58 percent for the Philippines (Baa2 stable).
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